Where are global iron ore prices headed for rest of CY’22?

China’s crude steel output was 1.065 bn t in 2020. In H1 CY’21, China produced 563 mn t of crude steel, a y-o-y increase of 59.121 mn t, or 11.8%. If the annual crude steel output in 2021 is required not to exceed that of 2020, the crude steel output in H2 will have remain at about 502 mn t. Therefore, crude steel output in the second half of this year will have to decrease by at least 64 mn t, y-o-y. Now, if we factor in the increase in Chinese domestic iron concentrate production by 1.5 mn t this year, the actual import of iron ore can be reduced by about 150.58 mn t. Assuming that the iron ore import rate remains same vis-a-vis last year, (623 mn t in H2 of 2020), the import volume can be reduced by about 24% y-o-y in H2 of 2021.

Speakers: Mr Wu Jingjing, Deputy Director General, International Cooperations Department, CISA

Date: 19 Oct, 11:00 AM IST

Key points of discussion:

  • Impact of increasing supplies
  • How will Chinese steel production cut impact iron ore demand?
  • Will a rise in scrap consumption lower iron ore demand in China?