SteelMint Events

Category: 2nd Asia Coal Trade Summit

  • CIL sets production record but supplies still tight for non-power sector

    CIL sets production record but supplies still tight for non-power sector

    State-run miner Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has attained new highs in terms of coal production. The company breached the 400-million tonnes (mnt) production mark in the quickest time since its inception. The milestone was attained on 24 November of the ongoing fiscal, 31 days ahead compared to 25 December of last year.

    During April-November 2022, total production reached 412.6 mnt, up 17% y-o-y. The company is striding towards its target of 700 mnt set for FY23, which will be a new production milestone.

    Turning the tides in its favour, the company registered higher sales to keep pace with robust demand which helped it to deliver consolidated profit after tax of INR 14,878 crore in H1FY23 – the highest ever recorded during H1 of any fiscal so far.

    With demand for coal showing no signs of slowing down in the near term, the introduction of latest policy reforms is likely to further boost price realisation from coal sales.

    However, despite the increase in production is CIL being able to cater to all segments of coal consumers?

    Premium on coal supplies

    CIL has decided to charge a premium of 40% over the notified price across the entire range of coal grades supplied under bridge linkage.

    This provision refers to temporary coal supply till the time an end-user company commences operations from an allocated coal mine. This price structure is applicable for existing as well future contracts for both power and non-power customers from 1 June, 2022.

    Similar facility has been kept for coal supplied under flexi utilisation policy, which was the introduced to transfer coal linkages of one power station to another for reducing the cost of power generation.

    However, this revision would be applicable specifically for the thermal power plants lifting coal against this policy that do not have fuel supply agreement (FSA) with individual CIL subsidiaries effective from 22 November, 2022.

     Challenges confronting non-power sector  

    The CIL board has decided not to renew long-term contracts for coal supplies under linkage auctions meant for the non-power sector.

    These auctions are held across various tranches for different sub-sectors namely sponge iron, cement, captive power, steel and others. Till date, five tranches of auctions have been successfully conducted.

    As per policy guidelines, the tenure of FSA against these auctions was five years, which was initially proposed for extension for another five years upon mutual agreement.

    However, the company has informed that the expiring FSA contracts under tranches II and III auctions held during January-November, 2017 would not be renewed beyond five years. Similar instruction was also issued in case of contracts under tranche-I auctions.

    The decision has come as a big blow to the non-power customers who are already facing supply tightness amid CIL’s disparity in coal allocation.

    In a latest development, CIL has come-up with sixth tranche of auctions starting with sales for sponge iron sector in the first phase from 23 December. It is expected that these auctions would witness aggressive procurement as customers will look to secure fresh supplies against their expiring contracts by placing higher bids for the coal being offered.

    The Standard Linkage Committee has decided not to extend nomination-based coal linkage supplies to the thermal power plants that are executed under Letter of Assurance (LOA) route beyond 31 March, 2022.

    This indicates that the power producers would now have to secure coal linkages via competitive bidding under various auctions marked under SHAKTI (Scheme to Harness and Allocate Koyla Transparently in India) policy, instead of procuring coal at fixed notified price in the previous regime.

     Single window auction 

    Apart from FSA contracts, CIL’s coal sales via regular auctions has been the bright spot led by the spurt in bid prices as the buyers are aggressively procuring the limited material put up on sale.

    This comes after the company’s supply prioritisation for the power sector had resulted in drastic curtailment of material offered at auctions.

    The new scheme has ensured a uniform rate for all consumers, thus making the gradual shift from the price discrepancy-based system that was adopted earlier. Besides, it also eliminated the variation seen in allocating coal for sale to different sets of consumers. Wider participation helped CIL to fetch better premiums.

    During April-November 2022, sales via auctions garnered a premium of 308% over the average notified price assessed for the allocated coal grades as against 50% recorded in April-November, 2021.

    CIL has developed a new scheme for conducting coal sales under the auction route by the introduction of a two-stage bidding process.

    The new policy is still under development stage with Eastern Coalfields being the sole subsidiary to have implemented it so far. However, the proceedings of the auction suggest that it will promote competitive bidding amongst the participants for preferential loading points.

     2nd Asia Coal Outlook & Trade Summit 2023  

    CIL has increased production rapidly over the last decade, but is it being able to cater to all segments of coal consumers in India? The non-power sector is facing a supply crunch and buyers don’t have enough material to bid for at CIL auctions. What steps may CIL and the larger policy establishment take to implement import substitution more effectively in India? Sign in for CoalMint’s 2nd Asia Coal Outlook & Trade Summit 2023 to be held in Bangkok, Thailand, on 24-25 April, 2023, where experts will discuss these issues threadbare.

     

  • How might Asian coal trade dynamics change if China lifts ban on Australian coal?

    How might Asian coal trade dynamics change if China lifts ban on Australian coal?

    Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong met with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing on 21 December, 2022, as the trading partners seek to stabilise their diplomatic relationship. Wong’s visit is the first by an Australian minister since 2019 and the first formal talks in Beijing since 2018.

    It is widely expected that a thaw in the bilateral relationship will have a positive outcome for trade. If market chatter is anything to go by, the possibility of China lifting its informal embargo on a host of Australian exports, most prominently coking coal, is by no means remote.

    China had levied an informal ban on its top coal sourcing destination in the latter half of 2020 as tensions escalated between the two trading partners over a series of issues. China was one of the leading coal importers from Australia till 2019 with the latter exporting about 25% of its total coal (both thermal and coking) exports to China.
    As relations between the two countries are heard to be improving, speculation is rife that coal trade might resume once again.

    China-Australia trade dynamics: how it changed?

    Australia accounts for 58% of global seaborne trade in metallurgical coal, while China, the world’s largest steelmaking hub, accounts for 55% of global steel production.

    China imported 197 million tonnes (mnt) of coal in 2019 (before the informal ban), of which 40% was imported from Australia. Commodity-wise, Australia’s share in China’s coking coal imports stood at 40%, while for thermal coal it was 60%.

    Post 2020, China focused on increasing its domestic coal production. Compared to 2019, China’s domestic coal production jumped 20% to 4,452 mnt in 2022.

    While imports continue to arrive in China, the absence of Australian cargoes has been filled by met coal imports from the US, Canada and Russia. For thermal coal, imports from Indonesia, Russia and Colombia increased substantially.

    Interestingly, the share of Russian coal in Chinese imports increased noticeably after the Russia-Ukraine war earlier this year and subsequent sanctions imposed by European countries.

    Russia’s share in China’s total coal imports have gone up to 22% this year against 10% in 2019 and 12% in 2022. Chinese buyers favour Russian coal for its high quality and low prices.

    What might happen if China-Australia trade resumes?

    As per CoalMint analysis, even if trade resumes between the two countries the situation is unlikely to revert to what it was in 2019.

    This is because the Russia-Ukraine war has changed global coal trade flows. With sanctions on Russia by a majority of western countries and a few Asian ones too, Russian coal is being diverted to China at much cheaper rates.

    On the other hand, Australian coal has found favour in key economies such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea. This has resulted in Australian coking and thermal coal prices trending at high levels. Australian thermal coal prices are still elevated by about 24% as against January this year.

    While global steel and thermal coal demand remains slow at present due to Covid and recessionary pressure, in the long run if Australian coal miners are hoping for Chinese buyers to make a return to the market, their hopes are likely to be dashed. Given the fact that Australian coal is massively uncompetitive against its rivals coupled with the fact that China is raising its domestic output, it is uncertain whether Australian coal exports to China will resume in a big way.

    Asia Coal Trade Summit 2023

    Keen to attain insights on Asian coal trade flows and the emerging demand-supply dynamics in the continent? How may China’s coal demand pan out in the near term and what factors are likely to shape met coal trade flows in 2023? Sign in for CoalMint’s Asia Coal Trade Summit to be held at Bangkok, Thailand, in April 2023